Each election has a tale in American politics. Although the presidential campaigns grab the attention of the American people, state and local races, the fight over governors mansions and urban centers, are where the most interesting political stories are being narrated. The outcome of the recent Virginia governor election and the St. Paul mayoral election results deliver an interesting contrasting diptych of the mood of the American electorate. One, a high-stakes national bellwether in a purple state; the other, an exploration of the agendas of a progressive urban core. Collectively, they provide a subtle explanation of the currents defining the political situation in the country.
Part I: Virginia - A Statewide Referendum and an Epic Victory.
Some of the most anticipated political happenings of the year were the results of the Virginia governor election in November 2021. Since it is a blue state in recent years, although with a solid conservative base, Virginia is a good indicator of the political environment in the country. The race saw former Democratic Governor Terry McAuliffe and a Republican political newcomer and private equity executive Glenn Youngkin go against each other.
McAuliffe made the election a firewall against Trumpism and a defense of Democratic policies on pandemic management and education, which the campaign was fiercely contested. Youngkin, in his turn, was able to move around the GOP world deftly, avoiding the controversy of Donald Trump but inspiring the Republican base with a powerful kitchen-table agenda. His campaign resonated well with two main issues, the economy, and education.
The longer-lasting closures of schools and the curriculum disputes, especially the idea of critical race theory, were the main focus of parents’ frustrations, which became their central rallying cry. The parents matter mantra was able to pull a number of voters on both ends of the political spectrum who felt that the bureaucracies were not listening to them.
The election outcome of the Virginia governor was a shock. Glenn Youngkin defeated Terry McAuliffe turning a state that Joe Biden had won by 10 points less than a year ago. The triumph was of various kinds:
1. Suburban Shift: Youngkin has conquered the vote-rich suburbs especially in Northern Virginia which have been the foundation of the Democrat victories in the state. He also captured moderate, college-educated voters who were also concerned about the economy and public education.
2. Energized Base: He managed to rouse the Republican base without losing independents, a very fine balancing act that has not been successful to most of the GOP candidates in the Trump era.
3. Economic Focus: With soaring inflation and supply chain concerns in the air, the business experience and the emphasis on tax relief and job creation by Youngkin offered a strong alternative to the Democratic platform.
The election results of the Virginia governor sent shivers in the national political establishment. To republicans, it served as a possible blueprint towards winning the 2022 midterms: local issues, empowering parents, and discussing the economy. To Democrats, it was a burning reminder that the coalition that had achieved them in 2020 was tenuous and the population was getting impatient with the policies of the pandemic and the financial instability.
Part II: St. Paul - A Progressive Endorsement and the Power of Incumbency.
The St. Paul mayor election was a local one, whereas Virginia was playing in an enormous, nationally televised stage, with far-reaching consequences on the future of the city. In November 2021 the election of St. Paul mayor provided a strong contrast to the situation going on the East Coast.
The race involved an incumbent Democrat Mayor Melvin Carter with a national presence as a progressive with a battery of contenders that criticized his views on public safety and taxation. The key problem that was prevailing in St. Paul mayor election was, without any doubt, the future of public safety after the murder of George Floyd and the subsequent national reckoning on policing.
Mayor Carter had been an ardent advocate of a controversial amendment to the charter to reorganize the city police department to a Department of Public Safety. This was a measure that was considered together with the same vote and this was supposed to be a public health approach to safety though it also caused great anxiety to residents and the business owners who feared that this would result in less policing and increase in crime.
The anti-Carter campaign was aimed at cashing in on this fear with the rhetoric that the city was becoming less safe due to his progressive policies. The outcomes of the St. Paul mayor election however narrated otherwise. Melvin Carter was reelected with a landslide majority of the votes.
His triumph can be explained by some of the following reasons:
1. A Formidable Progressive Coalition: The core of the Carter campaign its youths, the communities of color, and the urban progressives continued to be militantly loyal. He had a vision of transformative change and racial justice and they believed in the vision even when the vision was politically dangerous.
2. The Power of Incumbency: Carter had a track record of achievements to campaign on because, being the current mayor, he was the first mayor to make universal college savings accounts available to children and guide the city through the COVID-19 pandemic.
3. Another Alternative Rejected: Although the amendment on the public safety actually lost at the polls, the opposition party candidates did not provide any united or significant vision. Although voters were careful about the police amendment, it did not seem to them that it was the solution to get rid of the mayor.
The case of the St. Paul mayor election proved that even in a profoundly progressive city, a leader whose agenda was progressive and reform-oriented could still win, despite some heavy headwinds on particular matters. It highlighted the value of a solid mobilized base and contrasting a local election that is fought on values and a statewide one fought on more generalized issues.
Comparative Analysis: Divergent Ways in a divided Nation.
When comparing the results of the Virginia governor election with the results of the St. Paul mayor election, it can be seen that American politics is quite complicated and contradictory on many occasions
The National vs. The Local: The Virginia race was made a de facto national referendum. Vients were not merely electing a governor; they were sending a signal to the white house regarding their contentment on the path that the country was taking. The election of mayor of St. Paul on the other hand was highly localized. Although the national motifs of the safety of the people and police were there, the discussion was grounded in the local context of St. Paul, its charter, its city council, and its community life.
The Suburban Swing vs. The Urban Base: Suburban voters going GOP was the most crucial demographic narrative in Virginia. Such voters usually play the swing vote in swing states. In St. Paul, a coalition and turnout of urban progressive base was able to win the election, and this is less effective in a diverse, statewide electorate.
The Issue Matrix: The two overriding and unifying themes that made Youngkin go to Virginia were Education and economy. The single-issue election in St. Paul was that of public safety and whether the incumbent was the person to lead the city through a time of social crisis. This shows how the voter priorities can change radically between jurisdictions.
The Future of the Road: Implications 2022 and Beyond.
Political strategists in the two parties are already taking the lessons of these two elections.
The outcome of the Virginia governor election is a blueprint to the Republicans. They demonstrate that it is possible to win by narrowing down on issues that directly affect the lives of families in their day to day existence such as schools, public safety and the cost of living without being burdened by the cultural baggage that might send moderate voters away. The question will be how to repeat this model in the other states where a candidate is not as custom-made as Youngkin.
The image is more complex among the democrats. The defeat at Virginia was a good wakeup call that the agenda is not resonating with the wider electorate. It implies that they should polish their education and economic messages, which Republicans managed to turn into weapons. Nevertheless, the outcomes of the St. Paul mayor election demonstrate that in the territories that are considered to be safe and democratic, the progressive wing of the party is still strong and motivated. The main challenge that the party will face is the ability to strike a balance between the interests of the urban core and those that have the suburban voters that it requires to win the national electoral.
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